Far right surges in Germany

What’s driving the day in Brussels.
By NICHOLAS VINOCUR
with ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH
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GREETINGS. I’m Nick Vinocur and I’m happy to say “welcome back” to those of you re-familiarizing themselves with this newfangled form of digital communication we call email. From those of us who have been at it for weeks, as the gladiators said: “We salute you.”
FULL BREAKFAST: To kick off this back-to-school week, we have bracing election news from Germany, where the far right has scored its biggest election victory since World War II; an advance peek at the new European Commission; and an exclusive look at the much-awaited Mario Draghi competitiveness report, seen by POLITICO’s Antoaneta Roussi. 
Take another sip of coffee. Let’s go.
GERMANY SHAKEN AS FAR RIGHT SURGES IN STATE ELECTIONS: Seventy-nine years since World War II came to an end in Europe, the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged during two state elections held over the weekend in eastern Germany.
Mention the war: References to Germany’s wartime history aren’t always warranted. In this case, they are. The man who led his party to victory in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, has twice been found guilty by a German court of purposely employing Nazi rhetoric, and is considered one of the country’s most extreme politicians.
A win and a runner-up: The AfD is on track to take first place in formerly Communist-controlled Thuringia, with about 33 percent of votes, according to an early projection. In the more populous state of Saxony, the AfD got almost 31 percent of the vote, trailing close behind the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) on just below 32 percent.
Far-left gains: A new populist-left party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), is set to finish third in both states, according to the early projections. Here’s the expert take on Sunday’s election results from top German colleagues James Angelos and Nette Nöstlinger.
Takeaway 1: The stigma’s gone. Germany’s AfD is notching up wins despite condemnation, warnings from the country’s domestic intelligence agency about extremism in its ranks and huge street rallies denouncing the far right. Thuringians were unfazed by all that; perhaps it even encouraged some of them. A third east German state, Brandenburg, will have its election on Sept. 22 — and the AfD is poised to do well there, too. As French President Emmanuel Macron has found out, waving red flags about the threat of the far right doesn’t work. Politics wins elections, not moralism.
Takeaway 2: Get ready to hear more about Sahra Wagenknecht. The old-school hard-leftist who relishes making fun of well-meaning Greens and “lifestyle leftists,” as she calls them, is on course to finish third in both Thuringia and Saxony, making her a likely kingmaker when it comes time for the parties to form coalitions. She also happens to be one of Germany’s best-liked politicians. Here’s the must-read profile of Wagenknecht by James Angelos, in case you missed it.
Takeaway 3: The outcome is another nail in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s political coffin. His SPD did poorly in both the weekend’s elections and the other parties in his ruling coalition (the Greens and the liberal FDP) did even worse — like, crashing-out-of-the-state-parliament-in-Thuringia worse. The conservative Christian Democratic Union, however, seems to have staved off AfD victory in Saxony and nabbed first place. That’s in keeping with national polls suggesting the CDU could dethrone Scholz’s SPD.
“The results for the AfD in Saxony and Thuringia are worrying,” Scholz told Reuters in response to Sunday’s results. “Our country cannot and must not get used to this. The AfD is damaging Germany. It is weakening the economy, dividing society and ruining our country’s reputation.”
Takeaway 4: Don’t over blow it. The shock effect of the AfD winning a state election should be tempered by two key facts: They’re almost guaranteed not to govern the state, given a boycott on working with them from other parties. And Thuringia, which represents about 2 percent of Germany’s population, doesn’t speak for the country. It does, however, speak for a specific population of former East German voters who are particularly permeable to radical, anti-EU and anti-Western messaging.
THE NAMES ARE (ALMOST) ALL IN: Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s deadline for member countries to name their preferred commissioners passed on Friday and only one country is going to turn into a pumpkin: Belgium has yet to send its nominee because of the ongoing, and faltering, talks on forming a national government, almost three months after it held European, national and regional elections. 
The candidates: The 26 other member countries have named at least one potential commissioner. My colleague Paul Dallison has been keeping track of them. Read the (nearly) complete list here.
How’s it looking? While the full distribution of titles and portfolios won’t be known for a few weeks, a lot can already be said about von der Leyen’s incoming Commission …
IT’S A BOYS’ CLUB: VDL 2 is likely to be the most male-dominated European Commission in more than a decade (think back to the Barroso era). As of Friday, there were seven women nominated, including von der Leyen, versus 17 men. That balance is likely to shift in the coming days as von der Leyen pressures smaller countries like Malta to switch out their male candidates for women. (She’s likely to succeed in Malta’s case, despite the misgivings of Prime Minister Robert Abela, an EU diplomat told Playbook). But Europe’s most powerful woman has very little chance of delivering the gender-balanced Commission she promised.
The fallout? As sitting Commissioner Věra Jourová put it in a message to Playbook, having a gender-balanced Commission in von der Leyen’s first term made it more effective. “It has proven to be useful to have a gender balance of the College and it was very far-sighted to ask for it,” Jourová wrote. “Although I never saw gender as the only qualification criterion, I would find it regretful if in the next Commission there were fewer women than in the Juncker one … (where we were 9).”
But there’s more: One high-ranking EU official told Playbook on condition of anonymity that failing to achieve gender balance would be humiliating for Europe on the world stage. “It will be back like during the Delors Commission when men were sitting around drinking and smoking in the Berlaymont,” the person said. “Super embarrassing.”
Nobody cared: The problem, this person added, was that member countries faced minimal pushback when pitching male candidates. “It was a viral effect. Once the first one went through, the others thought, ‘why not?’” The August dead zone in EU politics also played a part: “Where was the outrage from the heads of our political groups? It was on vacation, ready to be deployed on Sept. 2.”
What’s likely to happen now: A few heads will roll during commissioner hearings in the European Parliament, which could right the balance a bit further. Last time around, lawmakers got rid of three countries’ candidates — should we expect that number to be matched this time around? “Yes, and probably surpassed,” said this person.
ONE-PARTY RULE: With more than half of new commissioners likely to hail from von der Leyen’s conservative European People’s Party grouping, College meetings are set to feel like mini gatherings of the faction. That reflects the EU election result, but it’s set the vibe among Socialists and Democrats (S&D) to “angry.” 
Wrath of the S&D, silence of the Greens: Expect the S&D to get a portfolio close to their hearts — and to be merciless during Parliament hearings. Expect the Greens to grin and bear their poor fortune in this Commission.
NEW STRUCTURE: While this remains top secret, two people directly aware of deliberations said the president would rely on a small cadre of executive vice presidents in charge of clusters.
Defense and Med: The EU will get its first-ever “defense commissioner,” and the new post of commissioner for the Mediterranean will see the EU’s dealings with its neighborhood split into two departments — reflecting the growing importance of Europe’s southern border and relations with North African states.
Get used to it: Given the names already known, there’s a chance the following could end up with executive VP titles: Italy’s Raffaele Fitto, France’s Thierry Breton, Spain’s Teresa Ribera, Slovakia’s Maroš Šefčovič, and Latvia’s Valdis Dombrovskis. Von der Leyen is due to start detailed consultations with key commissioner-designates this week, two sources told Playbook.
BOTTOM LINE: This Commission College will lean center-right and be heavily focused on security in the broadest sense (von der Leyen said the EU would evolve to become a “security project” during her GLOBSEC speech this past weekend) and competitiveness. It’ll also be much less concerned about green matters than the previous College. 
Gonna be ugly: But, as my colleagues Barbara Moens and Jacopo Barigazzi pointed out in this piece, von der Leyen is likely to have the second term “from hell” as political instability in key countries and thrift in others threaten to derail her big plans. 
EXCLUSIVE — DRAGHI REPORT CALLS FOR CARTE BLANCHE ON DEFENSE: It’s the report everyone wants to read and (almost) no one has seen … except for us. A draft of former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi’s competitiveness report obtained by my colleague Antoaneta Roussi claims that Europe’s defense industry should have no restrictions on accessing EU funding and that mergers should be permitted to help scale national champions.
Context: As policy reports go, the Draghi report is as hotly anticipated as it gets. The magnum opus — meant to lay out a blueprint for making the EU stronger, richer and fairer — was expected to drop before the summer but was delayed until the fall and is now expected out any minute. (Playbook would suggest marking your calendars for the week after next.) Draghi has trailed his thinking in speeches, but so far the specifics are largely unknown.
Not keeping pace: The June 20 draft has a section that lays out the challenges facing the EU’s defense sector including insufficient public spending, small domestic markets, lack of coordination on procurement and dependence on international suppliers largely from the U.S. “With the return of war in the EU’s immediate neighborhood, the emergence of new types of hybrid threats, and a possible shift of geographic focus and the defense needs of the US, the EU will have to take growing responsibility for its own defense and security,” the report says. “The EU’s defense industrial base is facing structural challenges in terms of capacity, know-how and technological edge. As a result, the EU is not keeping pace with its global competitors.”
Remove the barriers: It calls for Brussels to free up funding by modifying the European Investment Bank Group’s lending policies and the EU’s sustainable finance frameworks and environmental, social and governance (ESG) rules to allow for defense investments.
And that’s not all. EU competition policy should allow mergers of the EU’s defense industry “when increased scale would deliver efficiencies” or attract competitive investments. Its recommendations also include introducing a “European preference principle” and creating a Defense Industry Authority to procure centrally on behalf of EU countries.
FURTHER READING: Antoaneta has more for POLITICO Pros here.
**FDDay, the must-attend tech reunion in France, returns on September 18, 2024 in Paris. Join over 4,000 founders, investors, and innovation leaders to discuss business, tech, and society, close new deals, and network in a village-like venue in the heart of the French capital. Get your ticket here.**
WELCOME TO BRUSSELS: As sure as fall follows summer, a new crop of ambassadors is showing up in Brussels. Among the newcomers …
Kyllike Sillaste-Elling, Estonia’s new permanent representative to the EU, is a veteran of the foreign office who previously worked in Brussels as the country’s ambassador to NATO. 
Lauri Kuusing, Estonia’s PSC ambassador, arrives in Brussels after a stint in The Hague. 
Nicolas Mackel, Luxembourg’s new permanent representative to the EU, is a career diplomat and former CEO of his country’s financial development agency. He is also ex-Antici.
Nerijus Aleksiejūnas is Lithuania’s new permanent representative to the EU. 
Karin Eckerdal is Sweden’s new Coreper I ambassador and deputy permanent representative.
Lene Mandel Vensild is Denmark’s new PSC ambassador. 
Jori Arvonen is Finland’s new permanent representative to the EU, having previously been Prime Minister Petteri Orpo’s EU sherpa.
Who have we missed? Reach out and let us know.
REVEALED — HOW DEEP THE TRUMP-ORBÁN CONNECTION REALLY GOES: In a transatlantic investigation led by ace U.S. colleague Heidi Przybyla in collaboration with yours truly, we detail the extensive and until now unreported ties between Viktor Orbán and pro-Trump conservatives in Washington, D.C. The story shows how the Hungarian PM’s people have successfully infiltrated the right-wing U.S. think tank circuit selling a grossly pro-Russian view of the Ukraine war. The piece also explains how, given Donald Trump can’t be seen with Vladimir Putin directly, Orbán is likely acting as a stand-in for the Russian president. Trump and Orbán met as recently as July. Read the full report here.
ISRAEL PROTESTS: Thousands of grieving Israelis surged into the streets on Sunday after six more hostages were found dead in Gaza, demanding that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reach a cease-fire deal with Hamas to bring the rest home, the Associated Press reports. Israel’s largest trade union called a general strike for Monday.
MACRON UNDER PRESSURE: French President Emmanuel Macron did not appoint a prime minister over the weekend, opting instead for talks with former Presidents Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande and former Socialist PM Bernard Cazeneuve, who has emerged as a candidate to head a new government. Macron is under increasing pressure to resolve the political crisis before the Oct. 1 budget deadline, write Laura Kayali and Anthony Lattier.
POLAND HAS “DUTY” TO SHOOT DOWN RUSSIAN MISSILES: Poland and other Ukrainian allies that share a border with the war-struck country have a “duty” to shoot down incoming Russian missiles before they enter their airspace, regardless of NATO’s position on such a move, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski told the FT in an interview.
“Membership in NATO does not trump each country’s responsibility for the protection of its own airspace — it’s our own constitutional duty,” Sikorski said. “I’m personally of the view that, when hostile missiles are on course of entering our airspace, it would be legitimate self-defense [to strike them] because once they do cross into our airspace, the risk of debris injuring someone is significant.”
Patriot games: The U.S.-made Patriot air defense system is outpacing Europe’s SAMP/T in sales, despite similar specifications, reports Joshua Posaner. Russia’s recent missile attacks on Ukraine have shown the Patriot’s proven combat effectiveness, while the SAMP/T struggles to gain traction, highlighting America’s dominance in air defense technology.
Ukraine still gassed up: Ukraine’s vast natural gas storage facilities can still offer Europe a lifeline this winter even as Russian bombs target the sites, the head of the country’s national energy company tells Gabriel Gavin.
GIORGIA ON MY MIND: Despite her recent break with Ursula von der Leyen, Italian PM Giorgia Meloni is likely to continue deploying her “third-way” populism, working with Brussels and key EU capitals to advance her political priorities, argues Mujtaba Rahman.
— Informal meeting of the General Affairs Council in Budapest, Hungary. Agenda.
— Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is in Črna na Koroškem and Bled, Slovenia; visits areas that were flooded in August 2023 with Slovenia’s Prime Minister Robert Golob and delivers a keynote speech at the Bled Strategic Forum.
— Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski is in Cyprus; meets with Maria Panayiotou, Cyprus’ minister of agriculture; meets Marc Fesneau, France’s minister of agriculture, at the MED9 agricultural summit.
— Commission Executive Vice President Margarethe Vestager meets Dilhan Pillay Sandrasegara, CEO of Temasek Holdings.
WEATHER: High of 27C, sunny intervals.
SCHOOL’S OUT FOR SMARTPHONES: Hundreds of schools across Brussels and Belgium’s southern region of Wallonia are imposing smartphone bans in schools in an attempt to tackle screen addiction and cyberbullying. Pieter Haeck has the details.
JOB MOVE: International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Rym Momtaz will join Carnegie Europe as the new editor-in-chief of the “Strategic Europe” blog. She succeeds Judy Dempsey, the blog’s founding editor, who stepped down this summer.
ADD A BOOKMARK: With institutional business resuming again, things are about to get busy. Welovebrussels has created a neat overview of events around the city in September.
HOLY SPOT: Brussels is getting a Mormon temple near the European Quarter, Bruzz reports.
BIRTHDAYS: Former MEPs Marco Campomenosi and Manu Pineda; former Commissioner Louis Michel; POLITICO’s Laura Greenhalgh; U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer; Andrej Babiš, former Czech prime minister; European Parliament’s Christian Beck; Nicholas Zylberglajt from Unmanned Life; Incredible Company’s co-founder Vincent Vandoorne; Law360’s Todd Buell; European Economic and Social Committee’s Giulia Barbucci.
THANKS TO: Playbook editor Alex Spence, Playbook reporter Šejla Ahmatović and producer Catherine Bouris.
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